Cardiovascular vulnerability predicts hospitalisation in primary care clinically suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients: A model development and validation study.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular conditions were shown to be predictive of clinical deterioration in hospitalised patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this also holds for outpatients managed in primary care is yet unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incremental value of cardiovascular vulnerability in predicting the risk of hospital referral in primary care COVID-19 outpatients. DESIGN: Analysis of anonymised routine care data extracted from electronic medical records from three large Dutch primary care registries. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult patients seen in primary care for COVID-19 symptoms in the 'first wave' of COVID-19 infections (March 1 2020 to June 1 2020) and in the 'second wave' (June 1 2020 to April 15 2021) in the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURES: A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to predict hospital referral within 90 days after first COVID-19 consultation in primary care. Data from the 'first wave' was used for derivation (n = 5,475 patients). Age, sex, the interaction between age and sex, and the number of cardiovascular conditions and/or diabetes (0, 1, or ≥2) were pre-specified as candidate predictors. This full model was (i) compared to a simple model including only age and sex and its interaction, and (ii) externally validated in COVID-19 patients during the 'second wave' (n = 16,693). RESULTS: The full model performed better than the simple model (likelihood ratio test p<0.001). Older male patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions and/or diabetes had the highest predicted risk of hospital referral, reaching risks above 15-20%, whereas on average this risk was 5.1%. The temporally validated c-statistic was 0.747 (95%CI 0.729-0.764) and the model showed good calibration upon validation. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with COVID-19 symptoms managed in primary care, the risk of hospital referral was on average 5.1%. Older, male and cardiovascular vulnerable COVID-19 patients are more at risk for hospital referral.

Sex- and age specific association of new-onset atrial fibrillation with in-hospital mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease with cardiovascular involvement, including cardiac arrhythmias. Notably, new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) during hospitalisation in COVID-19 patients has been associated with increased mortality. However, how this risk is impacted by age and sex is still poorly understood. METHODS: For this multicentre cohort study, we extracted demographics, medical history, occurrence of electrical disorders and in-hospital mortality from the large international patient registry CAPACITY-COVID. For each electrical disorder, prevalence during hospitalisation was calculated. Subsequently, we analysed the incremental prognostic effect of developing AF/AFL on in-hospital mortality, using multivariable logistic regression analyses, stratified for sex and age. RESULTS: In total, 5782 patients (64% male; median age 67) were included. Of all patients 11.0% (95% CI 10.2-11.8) experienced AF and 1.6% (95% CI 1.3-1.9) experienced AFL during hospitalisation. Ventricular arrhythmias were rare (<0.8% (95% CI 0.6-1.0)) and a conduction disorder was observed in 6.3% (95% CI 5.7-7.0). An event of AF/AFL appeared to occur more often in patients with pre-existing heart failure. After multivariable adjustment for age and sex, new-onset AF/AFL was significantly associated with a poorer prognosis, exemplified by a two- to three-fold increased risk of in-hospital mortality in males aged 60-72 years, whereas this effect was largely attenuated in older male patients and not observed in female patients. CONCLUSION: In this large COVID-19 cohort, new-onset AF/AFL was associated with increased in-hospital mortality, yet this increased risk was restricted to males aged 60-72 years.